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Project Leader(s):
Arthur Agnello, Dept. of Entomology, NYSAES,
Geneva
Alan Lakso, Dept. of Horticultural Sciences,
NYSAES, Geneva
David Kain, Dept. of Entomology, NYSAES, Geneva
Type of grant: Monitoring, forecasting
and economic thresholds
Project location(s): Findings may be
applicable in apple-growing regions of New York, New England, Washington,
Canada, Europe. Findings may be more broadly applicable to research
into other pest/host systems in which synchronous phenology plays
a key role in crop damage.
Abstract: Mullein plant bug damage is
unpredictable. Sometimes, even when there are high nymph numbers,
there is no damage. This is probably due to asynchrony between mullein
bug egg hatch and apple bloom; apples are only susceptible from bloom
through when fruit are about 0.5 inch diameter. Insecticides must
be applied at the pink bud stage to prevent all economic damage. To
avoid using insecticides unnecessesarily at the pink stage, we need
to be able to predict whether mullein bug egg hatch will occur when
the crop is susceptible. To accomplish this we are comparing simulation
models of MPB development and apple development for their ability
to predict pest/crop synchrony under different winter and spring temperature
scenarios. Results of model runs will be compared to historical data
on pest/crop development and damage incidence. At this point in this
multi-year project, models are being constructed. In addition, Red
Delicious trees will be planted in pots, infested with mullein bugs
by placing them in infested orchards, then subjected to various temperature
scenarios, similar to those used in the model runs. Supplies have
been ordered for planting in spring 2004.
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